U.S. Newswire : Releases : "The Realities Behind North Korea's Nuclear Threat"
U.S. Newswire : Releases : "The Realities Behind North Korea's Nuclear Threat": "The Realities Behind North Korea's Nuclear Threat
5/25/2005 7:02:00 AM
To: National Desk
Contact: Jason Deal, 512-744-4309
WASHINGTON, May 25 /U.S. Newswire/ -- The realities behind renewed concerns that North Korea might test a nuclear bomb -- and the likely outcome of such a test -- are discussed in a report from Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor), a leading global intelligence company.
The report provides the geopolitical background to the recent secret meeting between U.S. and North Korean officials in New York. At that meeting, the U.S. reportedly reiterated that the Bush administration recognizes the sovereignty of North Korea.
Stratfor notes that a nuclear test by North Korea this summer or fall would trigger an international crisis, with serious military, political and economic consequences throughout the region. It would alter the strategic balance in Northeast Asia, potentially leading to armed conflict, a proliferation of nuclear weapons and U.S. military intervention.
Stratfor examines the likelihood and the probable fallout from a nuclear test, and concludes that North Korea will go ahead with the test 'only if it sees no other recourse.'
North Korea is not seeking military confrontation with the United States, Stratfor notes, but is looking for normalization of relations based on respect for its sovereignty and the continuation in power of the current regime of Kim Jong Il.
'For North Korea, this is a simple proposition -- it will suspend its nuclear program in return for removal from the list of state sponsors of terrorism and for assurances, preferably in treaty form, that the United States will not attempt to attack North Korea or undermine its regime.'
The Stratfor report discusses the probability of this outcome, North Korea's economic needs, and the current positions of the United States, China and South Korea. 'In the end,' it says, 'Kim Jong Il wil"
5/25/2005 7:02:00 AM
To: National Desk
Contact: Jason Deal, 512-744-4309
WASHINGTON, May 25 /U.S. Newswire/ -- The realities behind renewed concerns that North Korea might test a nuclear bomb -- and the likely outcome of such a test -- are discussed in a report from Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor), a leading global intelligence company.
The report provides the geopolitical background to the recent secret meeting between U.S. and North Korean officials in New York. At that meeting, the U.S. reportedly reiterated that the Bush administration recognizes the sovereignty of North Korea.
Stratfor notes that a nuclear test by North Korea this summer or fall would trigger an international crisis, with serious military, political and economic consequences throughout the region. It would alter the strategic balance in Northeast Asia, potentially leading to armed conflict, a proliferation of nuclear weapons and U.S. military intervention.
Stratfor examines the likelihood and the probable fallout from a nuclear test, and concludes that North Korea will go ahead with the test 'only if it sees no other recourse.'
North Korea is not seeking military confrontation with the United States, Stratfor notes, but is looking for normalization of relations based on respect for its sovereignty and the continuation in power of the current regime of Kim Jong Il.
'For North Korea, this is a simple proposition -- it will suspend its nuclear program in return for removal from the list of state sponsors of terrorism and for assurances, preferably in treaty form, that the United States will not attempt to attack North Korea or undermine its regime.'
The Stratfor report discusses the probability of this outcome, North Korea's economic needs, and the current positions of the United States, China and South Korea. 'In the end,' it says, 'Kim Jong Il wil"
posted by Greta Jane at Wednesday, May 25, 2005
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